- The S&P 500 is simply too costly for an economic system possible headed for a downturn, stated UBS International Wealth Administration.
- “The newest labor market information appears to be like too sizzling to justify an additional dovish shift in Fed coverage.”
Expensive US shares counsel traders anticipate the Federal Reserve to start out slicing rates of interest quickly and steer the world’s largest economic system away from a harmful downturn — however that view is simply too optimistic, in line with UBS International Wealth Administration.
After the Federal Reserve’s tenth consecutive price improve final week, feedback from Chairman Jerome Powell and the central financial institution dropping language from its assertion that “some extra coverage firming could also be applicable,” gave the “clearest indications but” that the Fed is drawing nearer to the top of its aggressive mountaineering cycle, UBS stated Monday.
“However regardless of this constructive indication, we imagine fairness markets have moved too far in pricing a extra dovish price trajectory, together with the tempo of cuts,” Mark Haefele, chief funding officer at UBS International Wealth Administration, wrote in a notice.
Traders anticipate the Fed’s huge price hikes over the previous 12 months will result in a recession and foresee a virtually 5o% chance of a quarter-point lower by September from the present 5%-5.25% vary.
In the meantime, nonfarm payroll progress of 253,000 in final week’s jobs report was nicely above expectations of 180,000 and “too sizzling to justify an additional dovish shift in Fed coverage,” Haefele stated.
And whereas inflation is moderating, it is nonetheless too excessive, he added. The broadly watched Client Worth Index in March cooled to five% however was nonetheless above the Fed’s 2% goal. On Wednesday, the April CPI report is predicted to carry regular at 5%.
Regardless of all this, “valuations within the fairness market are pricing in too rosy an end result for the economic system,” the funding strategist stated.
The S&P 500 has been buying and selling at 18.8 instances ahead earnings over the approaching 12 months, a 16% premium to the 10-year common.
However historical past reveals that when the S&P 500 has traded above 18 instances ahead earnings, the 10-year Treasury yield is lower than 2% or consensus earnings progress expectations are at 14% on common, Haefele stated.
“At current, we anticipate S&P 500 earnings to contract 5% in 2023,” he stated, and the 10-year Treasury yield was up at 3.5% on Monday.
“Because of this, we imagine US equities are pricing a excessive chance of a near-perfect end result for the US economic system. But tighter monetary situations, declining company earnings, and comparatively excessive valuations all current dangers.”